Bracing for impact: What if you are misinformed ahead of a market event?

When an interest rate decision looms, portfolio managers (PMs), traders and dealers build a matrix of possible outcomes, decide their expectation and work out how to maximise their upside, while minimising their downside. That hinges upon an understanding of the market’s view, and its likely reaction to an outcome, to understand the risks inherent to any trade. Sell-side research and market intelligence can be fundamental to investors in setting up these preparations. If the outcome is unexpected, that also needs to be handled. James Athey, senior portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard, Sean George, CIO at Strukturinvest Fondcommission, and Mattias Remnefjord, product manager for fixed income at FIS, outline the scenarios for long-only and alternative investment managers, and their investment bank counterparts.

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