Growing fears amid strike actions, reshoring, and opportunities in emerging markets

Published on 25 September 2023

Luke Hickmore, investment director at Abrdn, discusses the main issues trading desks should be focusing on this week, including his house views on the so-called “mountain top” profile for interest rates. He also unpacks the growing concerns amid strike actions seen in the US and UK; the risks behind the reshoring of manufacturing taking place globally and some of the overlooked opportunities in emerging markets.

North America

  • Equities volumes are low for the year to date, and bid-ask spreads widened week on week. US investment-grade debt volumes are stabilizing but liquidity appears good.
  • Data: Retail House prices on September 25, US GDP Growth on September 28, and Personal Consumption Expenditure numbers on Sept 29.
  • Primary equities: 4 IPOs expected, low for the five-year average. The biggest IPO should be Webuy Global.
  • US axe data, which is within normal ranges, indicates a higher proportion of bids versus asks in credit.

Europe

  • Equities and Euro investment-grade volumes are very high and liquidity looks good across the board.
  • Data: European Economic Sentiment on September 28, UK GDP Growth, and EU Inflation rate data  on September 29.
  • Primary equities: No IPOs expected this week (Data as of Friday afternoon, Sept 22).
  • EU axe data, within normal ranges, suggests much higher net buying versus selling of credit.
  • GBP axe data, which is within normal ranges, has seen a negligible change in buying versus selling.