Rising concerns over US debt, UK uncertainty, and a refinancing shake-up in Japan

Published on 18 September 2023

Ben Ashby, chief investment officer at Henderson Rowe, discusses how trading desks should be thinking about the mounting concerns over the growing US Federal Government deficit. He also unpacks his views on the challenges facing the Bank of England ahead of its interest rate decision this week; the three stages of grief for those exposed to commercial real estate and the global implications of a Japanese financing shake-up.

North America

  • US equities are still low for year to date, but spreads are tight. US investment grade volumes have stabilised and liquidity appears very good.
  • Data: US Fed Open Market Committee meeting on September 20.
  • In Primary equities: The US is forecasted to price 8 IPOs, the biggest being Maplebear and Klaviyo.
  • US axe data, which is within normal ranges, indicates a slightly higher proportion of bids versus asks in credit.

Europe

  • Equities volumes are still low for the year but liquidity is very good. Euro investment grade volumes are up and liquidity remains good. 
  • Data: UK Inflation Rate on September 19 and the Bank of England interest rate decision on September 21.
  • Primary equities: There are no IPOS expected on European exchanges (Data as of Friday, 1.30 p.m., September15).
  • EU axe data, which is within normal ranges, suggests a slightly higher proportion of EU dealer bids versus asks in credit.
  • GBP axe data, within normal ranges, suggests much higher net buying versus selling of credit.